To look forward, we need to look back. In the last interglacial period, ~125,000 years ago, global temperatures were 1–1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial times, similar to the temperatures we're tracking towards in our very near future if we don't curb greenhouse gas emissions. Global sea level may have been 6–9 metres (20–30 feet) higher due to Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet melt.
The United Nations Paris Agreement sets a target to limit global warming to 1.5°C, and well below 2°C. But will this save the Ross Ice Shelf and limit Antarctic ice sheet melt? This is the key question that SWAIS2C aims to answer.
To do so, we need geological records from the centre of West Antarctica. This will help scientists better project the amount of future sea-level rise to expect in our warming climate.
SWAIS2C researchers, engineers, and drillers will recover key environmental information from the ice and sediment at two different sites on the Ross Ice Shelf. No one has ever drilled deep into the Antarctic seabed at a location so far from a major base and so close to the centre of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. At Kamb Ice Stream, we will drill through a slab of floating ice nearly 600 metres (1,970 feet) thick. Underneath this ice is sea, but we will keep on drilling until we reach the seafloor to see what the sediment we find there can tell us. At the second site, Crary Ice Rise, the ice sits directly on the seafloor and is more than 500 metres (1,640 feet) thick. Here we will drill through both ice and the Antarctic continent itself to recover sediment cores. Drilling at these different sites allows us to compare how the ice shelf behaves in different temperatures.
The resulting geological records will help reveal how sensitive the Ross Ice Shelf and West Antarctic Ice Sheet are to past warming similar to the 1.5 to 2°C (2.7° to 3.5°F) target set in the Paris Agreement.
Our first scientific expedition of discovery took place over the summer of 2023/2024 at the Kamb Ice Stream Camp (KIS-3). You can read daily reports from the camp here.
We are currently preparing for a second season at KIS-3, with the team scheduled to depart in November 2024.
We know we must adapt to at least 30 cm (12 inches) of sea level rise over the coming decades, but we must also plan for a range of possible futures with the potential for significantly higher values. SWAIS2C researchers and the drilling machines will help us ‘see’ those possible futures. Dr Molly PattersonCo-Chief Scientist
Aims and objectives
SWAIS2C aims to:
- Determine whether the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has advanced and retreated during the Holocene. This was a period of relatively stable climate that has characterised the last 10,000 years prior to the industrial revolution and the onset of the Anthropocene.
- Determine how marine-based ice sheets respond to a world that is 1.5°–2°C and >2°C warmer than pre-industrial times.
- Understand the local, regional, and global impacts and consequences of the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to this warming.
